Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall, oil slides as Wall Street weighs Iran war signals
View original at finance.yahoo.comStock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall, oil slides as Wall Street weighs Iran war signals US stocks fell Tuesday morning as investors weighed President Trump's hint at a fast end to the Iran war with other, conflicting signals, as Wall Street monitored oil prices and hoped for limited economic fallout…
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When Russia invaded Ukraine, the u-rate was below 4%, core PCE inflation was over 5%, payrolls were running at 500k/month and consumers were flush with Covid stimulus cash
60% confidenceThe US offensive is 'very far' ahead of an expected four-to-five week timeline
60% confidenceSupply shocks create risks to both sides of the Fed's dual mandate
60% confidenceThe Iran conflict could end 'very soon'
60% confidenceThe war is 'very complete, pretty much' and the US is 'very far' ahead of the estimated timeline
60% confidenceThe US would 'not relent' until Iran is defeated
60% confidenceThe Middle East is a concentrated source of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that much of the world supply has to travel through
60% confidenceExxon has a diversified set of supply sources to keep operations running and continue meeting demand
60% confidenceA supply shock 'fattens the tails' of policy distribution and puts larger risks on both hikes and cuts
60% confidenceDemand for HPE's products and solutions was strong, with orders increasing double digits year over year across all segments
60% confidenceAll areas of Saudi Aramco are safe and operating normally, with Ras Tanura starting up following precautionary shutdown after drone interception
60% confidenceExxon is focused on ensuring people operating JVs in the Middle East have been safely evacuated
60% confidenceA supply shock 'fattens the tails' of policy distribution and puts larger risks on both hikes and cuts
60% confidenceThe war is 'very complete, pretty much'
60% confidenceSupply shocks create risks to both sides of the Fed's dual mandate
60% confidenceThe US would 'not relent' until Iran is defeated
60% confidenceThe Iran war threatens 'catastrophic consequences' for oil and the global economy
60% confidenceThe US is 'very far' ahead of an expected four-to-five week timeline for the conflict
60% confidenceThe Iran war is 'the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced'
60% confidenceContext matters - compared to 2022, the labor market isn't as hot, inflation isn't as high, and fiscal support isn't as large
60% confidenceThe Middle East is a concentrated source of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and this is playing out in real time
60% confidenceExxon has safely evacuated people operating JVs in the Middle East and is focused on ensuring their safety
60% confidenceSaudi Aramco can ramp up oil shipments in days and not weeks once the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal
60% confidenceIsrael's offensive is 'not done yet'
60% confidenceThe US hasn't 'won enough' and will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe's oil supply
60% confidenceThe Iran war could end 'very soon'
60% confidenceThe US-Israel offensive has effectively cut off Iran's naval and air capabilities
60% confidenceThe Iran war is 'the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced'
60% confidenceMarkets are global and prices are connected through the global marketplace, requiring diversified supply sources to keep operations running
60% confidenceWe now have a soft labor market, moderately elevated inflation and more modest fiscal support, setting us up for a more dovish Fed response if the oil shock is persistent
60% confidence